Friday, August 31, 2007

Revised Prediction

Earlier at "The Meltdown is Coming" I predicted Paul would raise 4 million this quarter and have 5 on hand, I think I might be way off. He's far surpassing the previous quarter, so I think twice last quarter isn't out of line plus his meetup competition is doing incredible. We'll know soon but just taking the top 25 and assuming that #25 gave $0 (with over 700 groups #25 is really much more than $0), they've raised just short of $400,000 as of this post. So it's reasonable to say Paul will raise 6 million or MORE this quarter. And my previous post assumed the campaign spending about 2 million this quarter, expenses have increased with a new headquarters and all but a 4X increase might be a bit much. Paul realizes his bank account is a big factor in getting media attention so the cheaper he is now the better, plus the money is better spent closer to the primaries. So Paul could have close to 8 million on hand which could put him short only Guliani for true debt free cash on the Republican side.
Another meetup bonus, is the diversity of the crowd. Other candidate's groups stay in their own "class structure". With the meetup groups it's likely that a few individuals that have maxed out could funnel money to those who haven't. That'll be rare and won't come anywhere close to the Hillary scandals but once Paul's cash numbers come out they'll likely be some reporting on shady fundraising, afterall how can a few spammers give millions of dollars?

1 comment:

The Hook said...

Another interesting component the may predict future Paul success are the couple of recent articles (AP, WSJ) Lew's Blog linked to that treat Paul fairly and don't resort to calling his supporters wing-nuts or himself as being out of touch.